Trajectories of AI technologies: Insights for managers

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has long been considered a technology for the future. With the release of the chatbot ChatGPT 4, many now feel the future has arrived. Long in gestation, this new technology promises many benefits to humankind, but worries persist that as AI technology scales and comes to rival or exceed human intelligence, the servant may become the master. Amid such hyperbole, the more nuanced trajectories of this technology have been neglected. In this article, we use the Trajectories of Technology (ToT) framework developed by Berthon and colleagues to explore the disparate paths that AI has taken and will take in the coming years, especially in the form of chatbots. This framework provides managers with a conceptual tool to strategically plan for the enormous promises and perils of AI in general and of chatbots specifically.